Russia’s war in Ukraine has shaken up next month’s French presidential elections, and it is as plain as day that the main beneficiary is the man already sitting in the Elysée.
Thanks to a mediocre opposition, goodish economic news and the decline of Covid, Emmanuel Macron was already the strong favorite, even before Russia invaded.
But what’s happened in the last month makes his re-election seem almost inevitable.
Not only has his poll rating strongly improved in the multi-candidate first round on 10 April, where nearly a third of voters now say they’ll plump for the incumbent.
But also in any combination for the 24 April run-off, it’s Mr Macron who wins hands down – whether it is against Marine Le Pen or Eric Zemmour of the far right, Valérie Pécresse of the conservative Republicans or Jean-Luc Mélenchon of the far left.
“Unless there is some freakish accident, there is almost no chance that Emmanuel Macron will not get re-elected next month,” says veteran commentator Pierre Haski.
“He has two elements working in his favour. One is the disarray of the opposition. The other is the international situation, which is playing almost incredibly into his hands. It’s turning into the most unexciting presidential election in living memory.”
As the fighting escalated in Ukraine, French news and social media switched from campaign mode to war coverage.
Issues of vital importance a month ago, which helped define the competing candidates, suddenly seemed less important. Existential anxiety replaced worry over the price of electric cars.
At the same time, Emmanuel Macron was seen striding the international stage.
His conversations with Vladimir Putin may have brought zilch in the way of results, but he was doing what the French like their leaders to do: going the “extra mile for peace”.
And with his customary good fortune, the president also happened to be this semester’s head of the European Council, representing the EU’s 27 governments, with the result that he took the lead in organizing sanctions on Moscow and arms to Kyiv.
Snaps taken by his official photographer have been much mocked for appearing to portray Mr Macron as a wannabe Volodymyr Zelensky – or maybe a Cuba-crisis Kennedy.
BBC