Nigeria’s food insecurity will worsen by 2025 and may throw nothing less than 33 million Nigerians into hunger.
The country’s national population is currently around 223.8 million.
A report by Cadre Harmonisé led by the Federal Government and supported by partners, including the United Nations World Food Programme, warned of deteriorating food security in Nigeria, with 33.1 million people projected to face high levels of food insecurity during the next lean season (June-August 2025).
Analysis showed that the 33.1 million people represents an increase of seven million people compared to the same period last year.
The rise in the projection was driven by current economic hardship, record-high inflation, climate change impacts and persistent violence in the northeastern states.
According to the report, between October and December 2024, approximately 25.1 million people are likely to experience food insecurity, even during the peak of the harvest season. Among them, 3.8 million live in the northeastern states – a figure projected to rise to 5 million by 2025.
Nationally, the number of people facing Emergency levels (Phase 4) of food insecurity is also expected to increase. While no populations have been classified as ‘Catastrophe (Phase 5),’ those in ‘Emergency (Phase 4)’ are anticipated to rise from 1 million during the 2024 lean season to 1.8 million in 2025, marking an 80 per cent increase.
Approximately 5.4 million children and nearly 800,000 pregnant and breastfeeding women across the most affected states – Borno, Adamawa and Yobe in the northeast; Sokoto, Katsina and Zamfara in the northwest – are at risk of acute malnutrition or wasting. Of these, 1.8 million children could face severe acute malnutrition (SAM) and require urgent nutrition intervention.
“This represents an alarming increase of 7 million people from the same period last year, driven by economic hardship, coupled with record-high inflation, the effects of climate change, and persistent violence in the northeastern states of the country.
“Between October and December 2024, 25.1 million people are expected to experience acute food insecurity, even at the peak of the harvest season. Of this, 3.8 million live in the northeastern states, and this number is projected to rise to 5 million,” the statement read.
According to the WFP, nationally, the number of people experiencing emergency levels of food insecurity is projected to increase from 1 million in the peak of the 2024 lean season to 1.8 million at the same time in 2025, representing a worrying 80 per cent rise.
“Approximately 5.4 million children and nearly 800,000 pregnant and breastfeeding women are at risk of acute malnutrition or wasting in six of the most affected states: Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe in the northeast, and Sokoto, Katsina, and Zamfara in the northwest. Of these, an alarming 1.8 million children could face severe acute malnutrition (SAM) and require critical nutrition treatment.”
“This is a record increase in food prices amid record-high transportation costs. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the price of beans in October 2024 was 282 per cent higher than the same period in 2023. Similarly, the price of local rice rose by 153 per cent compared to October last year. These economic shocks have resulted in the continuous devaluation of the local currency, the naira, against the US dollar, external economic factors, and last year’s policy changes, including the discontinuation of the fuel subsidy.
“Other major factors driving food insecurity in the country include the effects of climate change, particularly floods, which directly impact the rising costs of both food and essential non-food commodities and services.
“Trend analyses for the northeastern states indicate consistently high or rising food insecurity levels since 2018. The number of people requiring urgent assistance has increased by at least 4 million annually during the lean season since June 2020,” the statement read.
Several factors have worsened the country’s hunger crisis, notably economic hardship and record-high inflation, which has reached 40.9 per cent for food and 34.2 per cent for all items as of June 2024.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the price of beans in October 2024 was 282 per cent higher than the previous year, while local rice saw a 153 per cent increase.
These economic shocks are attributed to factors such as the continued devaluation of the Naira against the US dollar, external economic influences, and last year’s discontinuation of the fuel subsidy.
Other major drivers of current and projected food insecurity include climate change impacts, particularly flooding, which raises the costs of both food and essential non-food commodities and services.
Between October 1-15, 2024, the FAO recorded that floods affected over 9.2 million people and submerged 4.5 million hectares, including 1.6 million hectares of farmland.
Analysis indicates that the resulting annual production losses for maize, sorghum, and rice in flooded areas could total 1.1 million tonnes – enough to feed 13 million people for a year, with financial losses nearing USD 1 billion.
Persistent violence in the northeastern states of Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe (BAY) hinders food availability and access. Additionally, armed banditry and kidnappings in the northwest and farmer-herder conflicts in north-central states, including Zamfara, Katsina, Sokoto, Kaduna, Benue, Plateau and Niger, aggravate the ongoing economic struggles.
Trends in the northeast have shown persistently high or rising food insecurity levels since 2018, with at least 4 million additional people requiring urgent assistance each lean season since June 2020. The northwest and parts of the north-central region now exhibit critical levels of severe food insecurity and malnutrition, marking them as hunger hotspots that urgently demand action from decision-makers.
Representing Dr. Nuhu Kilishi Mohammed, the director of nutrition and food security, the permanent secretary of the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security, Dr. Temitope Fashedemi emphasized the importance of the Cadre Harmonisé in planning food and nutrition security interventions nationwide.
FAO’s representative ad interim in Nigeria and to ECOWAS, Dominique Koffy Kouacou, reiterated FAO’s commitment to supporting Nigeria, stating, “Working with our partners, FAO is dedicated to implementing durable solutions that tackle the root causes of food insecurity and malnutrition. By enhancing agri-food systems, we aim to meet immediate needs while promoting sustainable progress.”
Highlighting the ongoing issue, WFP’s country representative, David Stevenson said, “The hunger crisis in Nigeria, driven by the conflict in the northeast, requires urgent attention. Restoring peace is essential to achieving the northeast’s potential as the country’s food basket.”
UNICEF’s country representative, Ms. Cristian Munduate stressed the urgent need for action, stating, “Children are at the heart of the crisis, facing irreversible physical and cognitive consequences, and potentially even death. We must ensure that every child’s right to adequate food and nutrition is upheld.”
The United Nations called on the Nigerian Government, donors, and stakeholders to commit resources to prevent a potential food and nutrition disaster, emphasizing the need for immediate, multi-sectoral support.
The report follows a $50m World Bank support for Nigeria’s food nutrition challenges.
Country Director of the World Bank, Ndiame Diop revealed this during a meeting with Vice President, Kashim Shettima at the Presidential Villa Abuja on Tuesday.
According to Diop, the fund was earmarked under the Accelerating Nutrition Results in Nigeria (ANRiN) project 2.0 programme which is a crisis response window.